The town just keeps on growing. Should it and can it?

Getting full to capacity. Thames Water Barnfield Road sewage treatment works

The Wiltshire and Swindon Structure Plan that covers twenty years between 1996 and 2016 sets out how the different districts in Wiltshire will meet Government requirements to provide 3,000 new houses each year and a public enquiry in June examined the updates for the plan for the second half of the period. Jean Saunders of Swindon Friends of the Earth explains the complexities surrounding future growth.

As a main economic 'power house' for the South-West Region, Swindon is expected to cater for growth and attract workers to the town to fill the job opportunities created. For each new house that is built to meet natural growth in Swindon, one new house is anticipated for migrants from other parts of the country.

The Structure Plan proposed that Swindon should take 43 per cent of the county's share of total new dwellings over the plan period (26,000 of the 60,000 total). Some of these houses have already been built in the Northern Development and within the town.

It is anticipated that about 8,000 more houses will be built within Swindon on brownfield and urban greenfield sites, over 5,000 more in the Northern Development, 4,100 on the Front Garden (another 400 after 2016) and 1,800 proposed for the Coate site between the lake and the Great Western Hospital.

However Coate was an amendment to the Structure Plan and is not approved yet. If Coate is added in, land is required for just over 1,000 more houses by 2016. If Coate is not approved, the figure is about 3,000 more.

Assuming that the government's planning team agree to the split of houses around the county - Swindon has been asked to take more - they will recommend how Swindon should accommodate the 3,000 additional houses. There are several options proposed by developers owning land around Swindon.

Wiltshire County and Swindon Borough favour development of land to the east of the A419 between Sainsbury's and Wanborough as the 'first phase of a longer term direction of growth.'

At this stage, this long-term growth is not defined. This will come under the next round of regional planning guidance. If it is really big, say another 18,000 houses, this would require all the land from Wanborough to Blunsdon and a re-routing of the A419 that has been roughly estimated to cost about £76 million.

All the indications are that Swindon is going to be expected to grow even faster. This could lead to the requirement for another junction off the M4 as Junction 15 could not cope. However this means cutting a swathe through the North Wessex Downs Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty, which would go against government policy and would be very unpopular.

Further development to the west and north west of the town is a possibility. From a transport perspective and as a result of the Strategic Railways Authority block on any new stations on the main line between Bristol and London, the Cheltenham line is favoured for a new station.

The SWARMMs study (South West Transport Multi-Modal study) in 2001 suggested a new junction on the M4 west of J16. This points to development north of West Swindon, consuming the Lydiards and Purton, towards Cricklade. At the moment, it's anyone's guess where Swindon will be expected to expand in the longer term.

However a major problem for more growth is water treatment and supply. Because Swindon is close to the River Thames head-water, Thames Water has declared that it does not have more water available without construction of huge reservoirs which would consume more land.

They also state that Swindon sewage treatment works is nearing its capacity and there is no more technology available to meet stringent Environment Agency discharge requirements to prevent pollution of the River Ray, which feeds the top of the Thames.

Apart from opposition to further growth from the people who live in the town, could this be what seals off Swindon's rapid expansion of the last 180 years?